SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

MT Newswires
02-13

Societe Generale in its early Thursday economic news summary pointed out:

-- Euro crosses extend gains, EUR/USD bid above 1.04, decouples from United States Treasury/Bund spread. EUR/CHF risks take off (paying for Swiss franc puts) after U.S. President Trump and his Russian peer Putin agree to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. 10-year UST consolidates at 4.65% following "shock" 0.76% month-over-month spike in consumer price index services excluding housing in January, Federal Reserve firmly on hold.

-- Day ahead: U.S. producer price index, SocGen forecasts headline +0.4% month over month, core +0.2% month over month. Weekly jobless claims. European Central Bank speakers Cipollone and Nagel, economic bulletin. Poland's Q4 gross domestic product, Brazil's retail sales.

-- United Kingdom Q4 GDP +0.1% quarter over quarter, or 1.4% year over year), above Bank of England's forecast of 0.1% quarter-over-quarter contraction. Private consumption flat, government spending 0.8%, business investment -3.2%, exports -2.5%.

-- Switzerland's CPI slows to 0.4% year over year in January from 0.6% in December. Core edges up to 0.9% from 0.7%. Goods deflation doubled to 1.8% year over year, services inflation rose by 0.2pp to 1.8%. Swiss central bank on track for next 25bps cut in March.

-- Nikkei +1.3%, EUR 10-year IRS unchanged at 2.41%, Brent crude -0.9% at $74.5/barrel, Gold +0.5% at $2,917/oz.









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