The past three years for Dubber (ASX:DUB) investors has not been profitable

Simply Wall St.
02-15

Dubber Corporation Limited (ASX:DUB) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 105% in the last quarter. But that is meagre solace in the face of the shocking decline over three years. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 97% in the last three years. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. The thing to think about is whether the business has really turned around. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

See our latest analysis for Dubber

Given that Dubber didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over three years, Dubber grew revenue at 22% per year. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So on the face of it we're really surprised to see the share price down 25% a year in the same time period. The share price makes us wonder if there is an issue with profitability. Sometimes fast revenue growth doesn't lead to profits. If the company is low on cash, it may have to raise capital soon.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

ASX:DUB Earnings and Revenue Growth February 14th 2025

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Dubber's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Dubber's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dubber hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of -90% exceeds its share price return of -97%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

Dubber shareholders are down 29% for the year, but the market itself is up 16%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 13% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Dubber (at least 2 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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