The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) signaled a "hawkish" stance on Tuesday as it raised caution over further easing following its first rate cut since 2020, ANZ Research said on the same day.
The RBA lowered the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% on Wednesday in a widely expected move.
The central bank, however, signaled a cautious tone about additional rate cuts amid risks of disrupting disinflation.
"[I]f monetary policy is eased too much too soon, disinflation could stall," according to the RBA's monetary policy statement.
The RBA also revised its forecasts, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the December 2024 and June 2025 quarters downgraded to 1.1% and 2%, respectively. GDP growth for the December 2025 quarter is expected at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in the previous forecast.
Inflation is forecast to come in at 2.4% in the December 2024 and June 2025 quarters - also down from recent projections - before accelerating to 3.7% in the final quarter of the year.
"The refreshed forecasts and hawkish statement support our forecast for a shallow easing cycle, with the next cut (and last, in our view) expected in the 11 to 12 August meeting," ANZ Research wrote in its note.
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