The latest Market Talks covering U.S. politics. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0405 ET - President Trump's growing isolationism against EU allies has resulted in an emerging trend of euro underperformance, ING analyst Francesco Pesole says in a note. The U.S. and Russia have held discussions for a Ukraine peace deal that exclude both the Ukraine and the EU. "Hints at future Moscow-Washington cooperation can reinforce the notion of isolation for Europe from a defense and economic perspective and contribute to a rotation away from European currencies into the safe-haven dollar and the Japanese yen." There's also plenty of room for U.S. tariff risks to be priced into the euro, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.0440. ING expects it to fall to $1.0400 this week. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0329 ET - European stocks open mixed, with Germany's DAX rising from its latest record closing high and other bourses falling, after U.S. President Trump said he was considering tariffs of 25% or more on automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. The Stoxx Europe 600 is down 0.1%, having closed at a record high on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the DAX climbs 0.3% from a record close. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 drop 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's Ibex 35--which rose to multiyear highs this week--are up 0.5% and down 0.1%, respectively. There are now many tariff spinning plates in play, but it remains to be seen which of the floated levies will be implemented, strategists at Deutsche bank say in a note. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

1958 ET - Japanese auto stocks are lower after President Trump said he was considering tariffs of 25% or more on automobiles. The auto tariffs could negatively affect sales of Japanese cars or their profitability in the U.S. market. Toyota Motor, for instance, sold 2.3 million cars in the U.S. last year. Of that, about 23% were exported from Japan. The administration has said that action is likely after April 1. Trump said he would allow "a little bit of a chance" to re-shore production, without providing details. Toyota Motor is down 0.8%, Honda Motor is 0.9% lower and Subaru Corp. is down 1.9%. The benchmark Nikkei Stock Average is flat. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

1543 ET - The Make America Healthy Again movement could add to Mondelez International's costs as the company is already struggling with high cocoa prices. The effort, spearheaded by Health and Human Services head Robert F. Kennedy Jr., could require Mondelez to change the ingredients it uses in products like Oreo and Cadbury, Chief Executive Dirk Van de Put said at the 2025 Consumer Analyst Group of New York conference. Van de Put expects new rules would be based on European standards, where Mondelez already distributes a range of food products, so reformulating North American snacks would be "relatively straightforward." There would still be some additional expense, he said, as the sweets maker is already juggling high ingredient prices and cost-wary consumers. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

1156 ET - Base metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 1% at $9,473 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 1% at $2,674 a ton. Copper prices have risen 7.5% year-to-date on resilience in manufacturing activity, consumption and investor sentiment, Citi analysts say in a note. At the same time, President Trump's administration is taking time to consider a planned implementation of reciprocal tariffs, compared to prior market expectations of swiftly enacted universal levies, Citi says. By early April, there should be more concrete details on reciprocal tariffs, likely to take effect in the second quarter, Citi says. Citi lowers its 6-12 month copper forecast to $8,500 a ton from $9,000, and shifts expected quarterly average price weakness later into 2025. The U.S. copper price premium over LME is pricing in around a 10% tariff rate. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1016 ET - Uncertainty over Ukraine-Russia peace talks means it's too early for the euro to enter an appreciating trend against the dollar, Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman says in a note. Any breakthrough in talks in Saudi Arabia would boost the euro but this looks unlikely in the short term, he says. "Another risk for the euro in the next few weeks is the prospect of higher deficits that may come out of an incomplete peace Treaty." If the European Commission allows member states to use national escape clauses to circumvent the euro-area's fiscal rules to order to increase defense spending, sovereign spreads may rise and the euro could fall on the higher risk premium. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0753 ET - Base metal prices are mixed, with LME three-month copper flat on $9,380.50 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.4% at $2,635 a ton. Copper has managed to solidify gains made over the past week, amid tariff concerns from the Trump administration and Indonesia's Freeport-McMoRan port disruption, SP Angel analysts say in a note. Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have already raised the premium for U.S. prices compared to the LME, and Trump has mentioned copper as being in his sights. Major copper producer Freeport-McMoRan has also reported they are running at 40% of normal capacity in Indonesia owing to export restrictions, with copper concentrate stockpiles building up, SP Angel adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0639 ET - Bitcoin could attract new buyers over time if regulatory changes improve investor access and volatility falls, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick says in a note. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission data on fourth-quarter bitcoin purchases are "very encouraging" for this view, he says. While hedge funds once again dominated buying, bank buying was also strong. Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund reported a 4,700 bitcoin equivalent position in Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange traded fund. "While this is small for now, we would expect the size to increase over time and, indeed, for other sovereigns to also start buying." StanChart expects bitcoin to reach $500,000 before President Trump leaves office in 2029. Bitcoin falls 0.7% to $95,761, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0555 ET - The dollar could fall if upcoming data show a further fall in U.S. business sentiment, Commerzbank analyst Volkmar Baur says in a note. Many U.S. companies initially reacted positively to President Trump's November election victory but the picture changed in January, he says. Companies are unsettled by the rapid succession and partial reversal of Trump's announcements, some of which lack key details. A number of sentiment indicators for February will be released in coming days including the New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Survey at 1330 GMT. "If there are further setbacks, the dollar could face increasing headwinds." That's because the U.S. economic growth advantage is an important factor supporting the dollar. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0506 ET - Only European pressure can bring about peace in Ukraine, France's top diplomat says as talks begin between the U.S. and Russia, without the presence of European or Ukrainian leaders. Europe's political leaders have gathered in Paris in response to their sidelining from peace talks, and are united over the need to ensure lasting peace for Ukraine following its full-scale invasion by neighboring Russia three years ago, Jean-Noël Barrot tells radio station France Info. Any peace agreement must dissuade Russia from any new aggression against its neighbors, the foreign minister says. And it is Europeans who can bring about security guarantees for Kiev, Barrot adds. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

0428 ET - European defense stocks continue their steep upward trend in morning trade. U.S. and Russian officials are holding talks in Saudi Arabia on improving bilateral relations and potentially halting the war in Ukraine, and key European leaders discussed security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire deal. Germany's Renk Group was the top European defense performer, rising 8.6% at 31.7 euros, followed by sensors provider Hensoldt, up 4% at 48.16 euros. Shares in Italy's Fincantieri advance 3.7% at 8.76 euros, while those in Britain's QinetiQ increase 2.9% at 4.03 pounds. France's Thales and Germany's Rheinmetall lag behind, rising 1.5% at 180.05 euros and 1.65% at 949 euros respectively. Shares in Italy's Leonardo go up 1.2% at 34.66 euros. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 19, 2025 04:05 ET (09:05 GMT)

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