US natgas prices jump 7% to 25-month high as cold freezes wells

Reuters
02-20
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices jump 7% to 25-month high as cold freezes wells

Freezing wells cut US output in recent days

US gas output still on track for record high in February

US LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

Feb 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% to a 25-month high on Wednesday as extreme cold in some parts of the country boosted demand for the fuel for heating and cut output by freezing oil and gas wells.

Traders said prices also gained support on record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 27.3 cents, or 6.8%, to settle at $4.280 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 2022. That put the contract up for a seventh day in a row for the first time since July 2021 and kept it in technically overbought territory for a second straight day for the first time since November 2024.

With gas futures up 29% over the past seven days, stock prices of several of the biggest U.S. gas producers soared.

Recent increases in gas prices coupled with a decline in oil futures CLc1 cut the oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with gas, to 17 to 1, the lowest since December 2022. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas.

So far in 2025, crude prices have averaged about 20 times over gas. That compares with 33 times over gas in 2024 and 21 times over gas during the prior five years (2019-2023).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.

But with the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 6.7 bcfd over the last 13 days to a preliminary four-week low of 100.1 bcfd on Wednesday. That compares with a daily record of 106.7 bcfd on February 6. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain colder than normal through February 22 before switching to mostly near-normal levels from February 23 to March 6.

With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 146.8 bcfd this week to 129.2 bcfd next week. The forecasts for this week were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while the forecasts for next week were lower.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.2 bcfd on Tuesday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 16.0 bcfd on Monday.

The LNG daily feedgas record came as flows to Venture Global's VG.N 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana were on track to hit a fresh high of 1.6 bcfd on Wednesday.

In other LNG news, LSEG noted flows to Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd export plant in Louisiana were on track to drop to a preliminary two-month low of 1.6 bcfd on Wednesday, down from 2.4 bcfd on Tuesday and an average of 2.3 bcfd over the prior seven days.

Traders noted there were storms in Louisiana overnight but did not know of any possible impact from the storms on the plant. Officials at Cameron LNG were not immediately available for comment.

Week ended Feb 14 Forecast

Week ended Feb 7 Actual

Year ago Feb 14

Five-year average

Feb 14

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-188

-100

-58

-145

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,109

2,297

2,487

2,219

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-5.0%

-2.8%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

4.08

4.01

1.80

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

15.15

15.19

8.12

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

14.55

14.95

8.93

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

411

419

301

358

362

U.S. GFS CDDs

6

6

8

8

7

U.S. GFS TDDs

417

425

309

366

369

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

105.3

103.3

103.7

104.8

95.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

10.2

10.8

8.7

N/A

8.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

Total U.S. Supply

115.6

114.2

112.4

N/A

104.0

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.4

2.8

2.8

N/A

2.9

U.S. Exports to Mexico

5.8

5.4

5.9

N/A

5.0

U.S. LNG Exports

14.2

14.4

14.7

13.6

11.3

U.S. Commercial

17.7

20.7

16.0

14.2

15.9

U.S. Residential

29.8

35.3

26.0

22.9

26.4

U.S. Power Plant

33.6

32.8

30.3

33.2

30.0

U.S. Industrial

25.9

26.9

25.4

24.7

25.1

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

3.1

3.3

2.8

3.1

4.0

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

115.4

124.2

105.8

103.4

106.7

Total U.S. Demand

138.8

146.8

129.2

N/A

125.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

86

86

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

84

84

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

86

86

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Feb 21

Week ended Feb 14

2024

2023

2022

Wind

13

11

11

10

11

Solar

5

3

5

4

3

Hydro

6

6

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

35

40

42

41

38

Coal

21

20

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

19

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

6.40

4.60

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

12.84

6.99

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.85

4.06

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

6.19

4.70

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

7.10

5.73

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

17.50

20.21

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

4.38

4.49

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

5.32

2.90

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.44

1.88

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

169.47

179.42

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

97.44

72.71

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

57.41

46.97

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

39.00

33.39

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

27.94

22.58

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Leslie Adler)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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