The board of Treasury Wine Estates Limited (ASX:TWE) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of A$0.20 on the 2nd of April, an increased payment from last year's comparable dividend. This takes the dividend yield to 3.7%, which shareholders will be pleased with.

View our latest analysis for Treasury Wine Estates

Treasury Wine Estates' Projected Earnings Seem Likely To Cover Future Distributions

While it is great to have a strong dividend yield, we should also consider whether the payment is sustainable. Based on the last payment, the company wasn't making enough to cover what it was paying to shareholders. This situation certainly isn't ideal, and could place significant strain on the balance sheet if it continues.

Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to rise exponentially over the next year. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio will be 50%, which would make us comfortable with the dividend's sustainability, despite the levels currently being elevated.

Dividend Volatility

Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was A$0.13 in 2015, and the most recent fiscal year payment was A$0.40. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 12% over that duration. Despite the rapid growth in the dividend over the past number of years, we have seen the payments go down the past as well, so that makes us cautious.

The Dividend Has Limited Growth Potential

Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. Treasury Wine Estates' EPS has fallen by approximately 20% per year during the past five years. This steep decline can indicate that the business is going through a tough time, which could constrain its ability to pay a larger dividend each year in the future. It's not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months - we would just be a bit cautious until this becomes a long term trend.

We're Not Big Fans Of Treasury Wine Estates' Dividend

Overall, while the dividend being raised can be good, there are some concerns about its long term sustainability. The company isn't making enough to be paying as much as it is, and the other factors don't look particularly promising either. The dividend doesn't inspire confidence that it will provide solid income in the future.

Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Treasury Wine Estates (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about. Is Treasury Wine Estates not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.