Walmart Q4 Earnings Top, Outlook Disappoints: ETFs in Focus

Zacks
02-21

Before the opening bell yesterday, Walmart WMT reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The mega-retailer’s outlook was, however, disappointing as it warned of slower sales growth after a bumper year. This pushed WMT shares down 6.5%.

Investors seeking to buy the dip should consider ETFs having the highest allocation to the world's largest brick-and-mortar retailer. These include Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund XLP, Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF VDC, Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF FSTA, VanEck Vectors Retail ETF RTH and iShares Evolved U.S. Discretionary Spending ETF IEDI.

Walmart’s Earnings in Focus

Earnings per share were 66 cents, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny and improving 10% from the year-ago quarter. Revenues rose 5.3% year over year to $182.6 billion and topped the consensus mark of $179.6 billion. U.S. comparable sales rose 4.6% year over year. 

Notably, e-commerce sales rose 16% globally, led by in-store pickup and delivery, as well as its advertising platform and online marketplace.

The mega-retailer issued guidance for the first quarter of 2026 and the fiscal year. It expects revenues to grow 3%-4% to $159.9 billion in the fiscal first quarter and earnings per share of 57-58 cents. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $166.69 billion for revenues and 64 cents for earnings per share.

For fiscal 2026, Walmart expects revenues to grow 3%-4% to $674.5 billion and earnings per share in the range of $2.50-$2.60. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $679.4 billion for revenues and $2.48 for earnings per share.

Below, we have shared details on the ETFs:

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund targets the broad consumer staples space and follows the Consumer Staples Select Sector Index. It holds about 38 securities in its basket, with Walmart taking the second spot at 10.8%. XLP has the largest allocation in consumer staples distribution & retail at 32.6%, while household products, beverages, and food products account for a double-digit allocation each. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund is the most popular consumer staples ETF with AUM of $17 billion and an average daily volume of 9 million shares. XLP charges 8 bps in fees per year and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a Medium risk outlook (read: 4 Safe ETFs to Play as Tariff Tensions Heat Up).

Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC)

Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF also targets the broad consumer staples space by tracking the MSCI US Investable Market Consumer Staples 25/50 Index. It holds 103 stocks in its basket, with Walmart occupying the second position, with a 13.6% allocation. Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF manages a $7.4 billion asset base and charges a fee of 9 bps per year. VDC trades in a good average volume of around 108,000 shares per day and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook.

Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA)

Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF offers broad exposure to the consumer staples sector by tracking the MSCI USA IMI Consumer Staples Index and holds 105 stocks in its basket. Of these, Walmart takes the top spot with a 13.5% share. Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF has amassed $1.3 billion in its asset base while trading in a good volume of around 119,000 shares a day, on average. FSTA charges 8 bps in annual fees from investors and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook (see: all Consumer Staples ETFs here).

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH)

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF provides exposure to the 26 largest retail firms by tracking the MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index, which measures the performance of the companies involved in retail distribution, wholesalers, online, direct mail and TV retailers, multi-line retailers, specialty retailers and food and other staples retailers. Walmart takes the second spot with a 9.4% share. VanEck Vectors Retail ETF has amassed $242.3 million in its asset base and charges 35 bps in annual fees. It trades in a lower volume of 5,000 shares a day on average. VanEck Vectors Retail ETF has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook.

iShares U.S. Consumer Focused ETF (IEDI)

iShares U.S. Consumer Focused ETF is an actively managed ETF that provides exposure to U.S. companies with a focus on consumer spending and consumer goods. It holds 178 stocks in its basket, with Walmart occupying the fourth position at 8.7% share. iShares U.S. Consumer Focused ETF has accumulated $34.4 million in its asset base and charges 18 bps in fees per year. Volume is paltry for IEDI as it exchanges 6,000 shares a day, on average.

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Walmart Inc. (WMT) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP): ETF Research Reports

VanEck Retail ETF (RTH): ETF Research Reports

Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC): ETF Research Reports

Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA): ETF Research Reports

iShares U.S. Consumer Focused ETF (IEDI): ETF Research Reports

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Zacks Investment Research

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