Updates with FX forecasts from J.P.Morgan; U.S. 10-year yield target from Peel Hunt; U.S. inflation estimates from Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Peel Hunt; Real GDP forecasts from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, J.P.Morgan, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Peel Hunt
Feb 24 (Reuters) - Uncertainties around U.S. policies could slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs to fuel volatility in global markets, raising inflationary pressures, which could limit major central banks from easing their monetary policy.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage | S&P 500 target | U.S. 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY |
UBS Global Research | 6400 | 4.25% | 0.99 | 150 | 7.60 |
Goldman Sachs | 6500 | 4.25% | 0.97 (next 12 months) | 162 (next 12-months) | 7.50(next 12-months) |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 6600 | 4.00% | 1.12 | 145 | 7.50 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 6500-6700 | 4.50%-5.00% | 0.98-1.02 | 158-162 | |
6750 | 4.50% (Q4'25) | 1.09 | 146.3 | 7.28 | |
Deutsche Bank | 7000 | 4.7% (Q4'25) | 1.03 (Q4'25) | 7.50 | |
Nomura | 4.25% | 1.03 | 135 | 6.93 | |
6500 | 3.55% (Q4'25) | 1.10 (Q4'25) | 138 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) | |
J.P.Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.04 | 150 | 7.47 |
BofA Global Research | 6666 | 4.25% | 1.10 | 160 | 7.40 |
Wells Fargo | 4.25% | 0.98 (Q4'25) | 154 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) | |
BMO Capital Markets | 6700 | ||||
Jefferies | 6000 | 4.43% | |||
Barclays | 6600 | 4.25% | |||
Piper Sandler | 6600 | ||||
Berenberg | 4.90% | 1.08 | 140 | 7.30 | |
4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.00 (Q4'25) | 156 (Q4'25) | |||
Canaccord Genuity | 6325 | ||||
Citigroup | 6500 | 4.20% (Q4'25) | 1.05 | 139 | |
ING | 1.02 | 160 | 7.35 | ||
HSBC | 6700 | ||||
Evercore ISI | 6800 | ||||
Peel Hunt | 4.50% |
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025) | ||
Brokerage | Headline CPI | Core PCE |
Goldman Sachs | 2.6% | 2.6% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 2.3% |
2.3% | 2.5% (Q4/Q4) | |
Barclays | 2.6% | 2.5% |
Wells Fargo | 3.0% | 2.8% |
2.3% | 2.5% | |
Deutsche Bank | 2.8% (Q4/Q4) | 2.6% (Q4/Q4) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 3.3% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.5% | 2.5% |
BofA Global Research | 2.8% | 2.3% (Q4/Q4) |
Berenberg | 2.7% | 2.6% |
2.3% | ||
Nomura | 3.0% | 2.7% |
ING | 2.4% | |
Wells Fargo | 2.6% | 2.6% |
Jefferies | 2.3% | 2.5% |
UBS Global Research | 2.1% | |
Peel Hunt | 2.4% | |
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 | ||||||
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
UBS Global Research | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.3% |
Goldman Sachs | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 1% | 6.4% |
Barclays | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 1% | 7.1% |
3.0% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 6.5% (FY25/FY26) | |
J.P.Morgan | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 1% | 6.0% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
Wells Fargo | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.9% |
Societe Generale | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.7% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 6.7% |
Nomura | 2.9% | 2.2 | 4.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 5.8% |
BofA Global Research | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 7.0% |
Deutsche Bank | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 1% | 6.5% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 2.6% | 2.5% | ||||
Berenberg | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 6.5% |
2.1% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.2% (March 2026) | ||
Peel Hunt | 2.1% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 6.8% | |
ING | 2.0% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | ||
Jefferies | 2.4% (Q4/Q4) | |||||
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Brokerages 2025 forecast for S&P 500 index target https://reut.rs/4fTfFLt
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Anil D'Silva, Shounak Dasgupta and Tasim Zahid)
((Kanchana.Chakravarty@thomsonreuters.com))
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