Last week, you might have seen that Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.0% to US$10.12 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$1.5b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 18% to hit US$0.09 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Hillman Solutions

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Hillman Solutions are now predicting revenues of US$1.53b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 145% to US$0.21. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.23 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$13.28, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Hillman Solutions, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$16.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Hillman Solutions' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.1% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.6% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Hillman Solutions is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hillman Solutions. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$13.28, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Hillman Solutions analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Hillman Solutions that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.