There's been a major selloff in Materialise NV (NASDAQ:MTLS) shares in the week since it released its full-year report, with the stock down 39% to US$5.90. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €267m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 15%, coming in at €0.23 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Materialise

Following the latest results, Materialise's twin analysts are now forecasting revenues of €283.0m in 2025. This would be a reasonable 6.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 3.3% to €0.22 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €295.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.24 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

The average price target climbed 15% to US$11.07despite the reduced earnings forecasts, suggesting that this earnings impact could be a positive for the stock, once it passes.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Materialise's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.2% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Materialise.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Materialise you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.