Last week saw the newest full-year earnings release from PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (NYSE:PAGS), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. PagSeguro Digital missed revenue estimates by 2.9%, coming in atR$18b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of R$6.62 beat expectations, coming in 3.4% ahead of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for PagSeguro Digital

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from PagSeguro Digital's eleven analysts is for revenues of R$21.0b in 2025. This reflects a notable 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 6.3% to R$6.52 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$20.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$6.49 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$11.05, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PagSeguro Digital at US$18.14 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$5.29. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that PagSeguro Digital's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 24% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.5% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that PagSeguro Digital is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$11.05, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple PagSeguro Digital analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for PagSeguro Digital that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.