Last week saw the newest half-year earnings release from Sandfire Resources Limited (ASX:SFR), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were US$558m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.11 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 13%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Sandfire Resources

Following the latest results, Sandfire Resources' 15 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.18b in 2025. This would be a solid 8.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 41% to US$0.27. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.29 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of AU$10.61, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Sandfire Resources' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Sandfire Resources, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$12.00 and the most bearish at AU$9.10 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Sandfire Resources is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Sandfire Resources'historical trends, as the 19% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 16% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that Sandfire Resources is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Sandfire Resources. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Sandfire Resources. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Sandfire Resources analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Sandfire Resources' balance sheet, and whether we think Sandfire Resources is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.