Despite an already strong run, Ignite Limited (ASX:IGN) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the last thirty days. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 86%.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, Ignite may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x, since almost half of all companies in the Professional Services industry in Australia have P/S ratios greater than 1.3x and even P/S higher than 4x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
View our latest analysis for Ignite
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Ignite over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the recent revenue performance isn't good enough to keep up the industry, causing the P/S ratio to suffer. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Ignite's earnings, revenue and cash flow.In order to justify its P/S ratio, Ignite would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 8.3% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 20% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 5.1% shows it's an unpleasant look.
In light of this, it's understandable that Ignite's P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent revenue trends are already weighing down the shares.
Ignite's stock price has surged recently, but its but its P/S still remains modest. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
It's no surprise that Ignite maintains its low P/S off the back of its sliding revenue over the medium-term. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Ignite (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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