As you might know, Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. Jack in the Box reported US$469m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.75 beat expectations, being 3.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Jack in the Box

Taking into account the latest results, Jack in the Box's 20 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$1.53b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Jack in the Box forecast to report a statutory profit of US$5.18 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.25 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 8.4% to US$45.47, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Jack in the Box analyst has a price target of US$65.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$38.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.3% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Jack in the Box is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Jack in the Box's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Jack in the Box's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jack in the Box. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Jack in the Box going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Jack in the Box (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.