Shareholders in Dillard's, Inc. (NYSE:DDS) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 21% to US$399 in the week since its latest yearly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$6.6b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Dillard's surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$36.82 per share, a notable 11% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Dillard's after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Dillard's

Following last week's earnings report, Dillard's' three analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$6.57b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 27% to US$27.39 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$26.53 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$322, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Dillard's at US$450 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$200. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.3% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.3% per year. It's pretty clear that Dillard's' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Dillard's' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Dillard's' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Dillard's. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Dillard's going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Dillard's that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.