Last week, you might have seen that agilon health, inc. (NYSE:AGL) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.5% to US$3.35 in the past week. agilon health reported revenues of US$6.1b, in line with expectations, but it unfortunately also reported (statutory) losses of US$0.63 per share, which were slightly larger than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for agilon health

Taking into account the latest results, agilon health's 21 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$6.10b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 38% to US$0.37. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.61b and losses of US$0.40 per share in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.

There was a decent 16% increase in the price target to US$3.56, with the analysts clearly signalling that the expected reduction in losses is a positive, despite a weaker revenue outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values agilon health at US$6.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$2.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the agilon health's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that agilon health's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 38% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than agilon health.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for agilon health going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for agilon health you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.