Canadians could face a federal election within weeks, noted Scotiabank.
Aspiring leaders will be challenged to present a compelling and unified long-term vision for the country, even as the immediate threat of a trade war with the United States looms, said the bank.
Crafting a vision is often the easy part. Ahead of polls, leaders often make sweeping promises to improve Canadians' lives. However, execution frequently falls short, and too often, these promises fail to translate into meaningful and broad-based improvements in living standards, stated Scotiabank.
Canadians should demand better results from their governments. The federal election presents an opportunity to introduce a formal accountability mechanism to hold leaders to task, pointed out the bank. An explicit economic target tied to national welfare could instill greater discipline in policymaking, force trade-offs, and, importantly, provide clear and timely signals when the government is off track.
Scotiabank proposes that leaders commit to raising real gross domestic product per capita growth by 2% annually on a sustained basis. While far from perfect, GDP per capita is measurable, timely, and easily grasped by Canadians.
Stronger gains ultimately support higher real incomes for households. This level of ambition would equate to a compounding annual gain of about C$1,200 per person or almost C$5,000 over a four-year mandate.
The scale of effort required to reach a 2% per capita GDP growth target would be staggering. Earlier investments in the country's human capital would need to be matched with similarly audacious capital investments. It would also require extraordinary coordination across all policy levers, leaving little margin for distraction.
Annual capital investment would have to be about 15% higher, or an incremental roughly C$60 billion, to be consistent with such a target. At present, annual increases barely keep pace with depreciation, let alone population growth. Even then, deep structural reforms would be needed to unlock accompanying total factor productivity gains to make the math work, noted the bank.
The sheer scale of the challenge should spur political leaders to chart a course that at least approaches the level of ambition Canadians expect.
However, the potential fiscal investments and the political capital required shouldn't be underestimated. The price to the public purse could run in percentage -- not decimal -- points of GDP if Canada wants to front-run uncertainty in the near term and make a downpayment on transforming the economy in the long run through well-crafted policies that incentivize greater private sector investment, added Scotiabank.
Aspiring leaders must be upfront with Canadians if they are to gain a license to execute against such an agenda. And they must also establish strong frameworks for transparency and accountability, ensuring demonstrable progress toward their commitments if they are to maintain that license.
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