Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARQT) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Results overall were credible, with revenues arriving 6.0% better than analyst forecasts at US$197m. Higher revenues also resulted in lower statutory losses, which were US$1.16 per share, some 6.0% smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Arcutis Biotherapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Arcutis Biotherapeutics from eight analysts is for revenues of US$301.8m in 2025. If met, it would imply a sizeable 54% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 50% to US$0.60. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$288.6m and losses of US$0.74 per share in 2025. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a cut to loss per share in particular.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$19.88, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Arcutis Biotherapeutics at US$29.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Arcutis Biotherapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 54% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 88% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 20% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Arcutis Biotherapeutics is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Arcutis Biotherapeutics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Arcutis Biotherapeutics that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.