Maplebear (CART), which does business as Instacart, could see limited margin upside in the near term as its order mix shifts to lower average order value transactions, Wedbush Securities said in a note Wednesday.
The investment firm attributed the shift in order mix to the lower threshold for free delivery and increasing restaurant deliveries through Uber Eats, which Wedbush expects to be less profitable than grocery orders.
Maplebear's average order value fell in Q4 and the company expects it to continue to decline in Q1, according to the note.
Wedbush said it lowered its Q1 and 2025 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization estimates by about 8% and 5%, respectively. In its Q4 shareholder letter, Maplebear said it expects up to $230 million in adjusted EBITDA and up to $9.15 billion in gross transaction value in Q1.
Wedbush also said Maplebear's near-term investments could slow its margin expansion this year.
Wedbush lowered its price target for Maplebear's stock to $46 from $48, while reiterating a neutral rating.
Shares of Maplebear were down more than 10% in recent trading.
Price: 43.74, Change: -5.04, Percent Change: -10.33
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