Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:HRMY) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.1% to US$32.75 in the week after its latest yearly results. Harmony Biosciences Holdings reported US$715m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.51 beat expectations, being 6.6% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Harmony Biosciences Holdings

Following the latest results, Harmony Biosciences Holdings' nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$842.4m in 2025. This would be a decent 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 23% to US$3.13. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$843.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.27 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$52.22, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Harmony Biosciences Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$75.00 and the most bearish at US$33.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 18% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 39% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$52.22, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Harmony Biosciences Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Harmony Biosciences Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Harmony Biosciences Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.