Last week, you might have seen that MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.3% to US$5.34 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$286m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 6.3% to hit US$0.10 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for MannKind

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MannKind's six analysts is for revenues of US$311.3m in 2025. This would reflect a notable 9.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 87% to US$0.17. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$334.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.24 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 8.1% to US$10.00, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic MannKind analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MannKind's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 9.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 36% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 20% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than MannKind.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MannKind. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MannKind going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for MannKind (2 are a bit concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.