By Craig Mellow

Could Toyota Motor and Honda Motor shares be a Trump trade? Japan's automaking giants may be oversold. Maybe.

The U.S. president's threat of 25% import tariffs on cars has given auto stocks everywhere the jitters. Japanese names are particularly exposed, markets imply. Toyota shares have fallen 11% year to date and Honda's 12%. That compares with an 8% decline for General Motors, the leading producer in tariff-threatened Mexico.

Selling Japan autos isn't illogical. Japan is the No. 2 source of U.S. car imports, behind Mexico but ahead of Canada, sending some 1.5 million vehicles worth $40 billion across the Pacific annually. Toyota, Honda and peers have only become more dependent on U.S. sales as Chinese innovation in electric vehicles erodes their traditional position in other Asian markets, and in China itself, says Makoto Shiono, head of emerging technologies at Japan's Institute of Geoeconomics.

"They don't have any Plan B or Plan C to avoid U.S. tariffs," he says.

Yet objective factors, plus Japan's well-honed skills at trade diplomacy, make some mitigation of Donald Trump's 25% figure possible, if not likely.

Japanese auto powers make, or at least assemble, more than three million vehicles a year in the U.S., generating some 500,000 jobs directly in factories and dealerships. Japan writ large is the top foreign direct investor for the U.S., approaching a cumulative total of $800 billion. Its companies have the cash and desire to do more, furthering Trump's goal of investment replacing imports, says William Chou, deputy director of the Japan chair at the Hudson Institute.

"Japanese corporate surveys still list the U.S. as No. 1 or No. 2 destination for foreign investment," he says. "It's the only developed economy that is growing."

Japan imports virtually all its fossil fuels, making the No. 4 economy a good fit for Trump's ambitions to export more, particularly liquefied natural gas. Its existing tariffs are about as low as the U.S.', Chou says, though regulatory "non-tariff barriers" have periodically drawn Washington's ire.

Tokyo, in U.S. trade warriors' sights since the 1980s, has also mastered the art of accommodation, in contrast to Europe, whose pride is plainly stung by the Trump administration's highhanded attitude. "Japan has been through this all before," says Neil Newman, head of strategy at Japan-based Astris Advisory.

The late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe achieved a famously warm rapport with Trump during the U.S. president's first term, symbolized by golfing together and a trade "mini-deal" loosening Tokyo's strictures on U.S. agricultural products.

Current PM Shigeru Ishiba made a positive start down the same road on an early February visit to Washington. Chou assesses. "The visit was a good first step," he says.

Ishiba promised to raise Japanese investment in the U.S. to $1 trillion and, according to a Trump statement after the fact, agreed to "a joint venture of some type" on drilling for natural gas in Alaska and building LNG plants there for export.

Such overtures involve "very rough ballpark figures," Shiono says. Still, Ishiba's kickoff with Trump went "much better than we expected."

Japanese auto makers could even come out as winners from Trump 2.0 policies, Shiono speculates. The president aims to ax Joe Biden's rich subsidies for buying EVs, where Japanese brands aren't yet competitive.

That would boost sales of hybrid vehicles, where they are. Toyota is particularly strong in this category, its pioneering Prius and RAV-4 remaining perennial top sellers. Shares in the auto titan are down 30% from a peak last March, as it grapples with Japanese regulatory actions from fudging safety test results, as well as a lag rolling out EVs.

One Japanese car maker only the bravest investors will buy is Nissan Motor. Aside from structural difficulties -- it's projecting a net loss this year and Honda just walked away from a potential merger/rescue -- Nissan is second only to GM in Mexican production. That is one more dangerous liability as Trump veers back and forth on punitive tariffs for his Southern neighbor.

"Nissan's cash reserves are expected to run out within two years," Shiono says. "This is the main concern for the Japanese government."

Betting on Trump's moods is a risky venture, and U.S. law puts little restraint on the president's control over tariffs and other trade measures. Still, history and vibe point to Japan avoiding the brunt of Trump's actions. If so, prepare for a run in auto stocks.

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March 03, 2025 12:32 ET (17:32 GMT)

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