Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Supply Network Limited (ASX:SNL) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Supply Network
As you can see below, Supply Network had AU$7.37m of debt at December 2024, down from AU$11.2m a year prior. But on the other hand it also has AU$19.3m in cash, leading to a AU$11.9m net cash position.
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Supply Network had liabilities of AU$59.4m due within 12 months and liabilities of AU$41.3m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of AU$19.3m as well as receivables valued at AU$30.4m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling AU$51.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Of course, Supply Network has a market capitalization of AU$1.51b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Supply Network also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
Also positive, Supply Network grew its EBIT by 25% in the last year, and that should make it easier to pay down debt, going forward. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Supply Network can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Supply Network has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Looking at the most recent three years, Supply Network recorded free cash flow of 41% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
We could understand if investors are concerned about Supply Network's liabilities, but we can be reassured by the fact it has has net cash of AU$11.9m. And we liked the look of last year's 25% year-on-year EBIT growth. So we don't think Supply Network's use of debt is risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Supply Network that you should be aware of before investing here.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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