Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares fell more than 8% Monday, extending their year-to-date decline to more than 17%, a drop that Bernstein analysts called "a little stunning" given the company just launched its Blackwell product cycle. Bernstein, led by Stacy Rasgon, noted that Nvidia is now trading at ~25x next-twelve-month earnings, marking its weakest valuation in a year and near decade-lows.
The stock is also trading below parity with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), a rare occurrence in the past decade. While supply chain concerns, tariffs, and regulatory risks have weighed on Nvidia, Bernstein believes the AI trade isn't over.
The firm noted that $11 billion in Blackwell chip revenue was shipped in January, signaling that demand remains strong. With Nvidia's GTC 2025 conference set for March 17-21, analysts see a potential catalyst ahead. Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating with a $185 price target, calling the stock's valuation increasingly attractive despite recent volatility.
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