CrowdStrike Collapses 9%--Is This the Beginning of the End or a Massive Buying Opportunity?

GuruFocus.com
03-06

CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) just took a brutal hit, with shares plunging 9% at 11.42am todayits worst single-day drop since the July 2024 outage that disrupted businesses worldwide. The cybersecurity giant delivered strong Q4 results, with revenue climbing 25% year-over-year to $1.06 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.03 per share beating expectations. But Wall Street didn't care. The problem? Weak guidance. CrowdStrike projected Q1 earnings of $0.64-$0.66 per sharefar below the $0.95 analysts were expecting. Full-year guidance wasn't any better, stoking fears that growth is slowing at a time when costs are still rising.

  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with CRWD.

The July outage isn't just a PR headacheit's still bleeding cash. CrowdStrike expects another $73 million in related expenses this quarter, plus $43 million in costs from special deals to affected customers. Meanwhile, sales and marketing expenses surged 41% in Q4 as the company fought harder to maintain its growth. Net new annualized recurring revenue dropped 15% year-over-year, signaling that while CrowdStrike is still expanding, it's paying a higher price to do so. Margins took a hit, toosubscription gross margin slipped to 77%, and an $85 million operating loss replaced the $30 million profit from a year ago.

CEO George Kurtz isn't backing down, calling CrowdStrike a comeback story and reaffirming the company's long-term goal of hitting $10 billion in annual recurring revenue. Some analysts think the conservative guidance is just setting the stage for an eventual rebound, but investors aren't buying itat least not yet. With cybersecurity reliability under scrutiny and costs still piling up, Wall Street needs more than just optimism. If CrowdStrike wants to regain investor confidence, it has to prove it can turn this aroundfast.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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