The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative. At CA$66.41, shares are up 6.8% in the past 7 days. Investors could be forgiven for changing their mind on the business following the downgrade; but it's not clear if the revised forecasts will lead to selling activity.

Following the latest downgrade, the eleven analysts covering GFL Environmental provided consensus estimates of CA$6.5b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a definite 17% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to turn into profits real soon, with the analysts forecasting CA$0.13 in per-share earnings. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$8.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.32 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about GFL Environmental's prospects, administering a sizeable cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

See our latest analysis for GFL Environmental

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 17% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 18% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 0.2% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that GFL Environmental's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that GFL Environmental's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on GFL Environmental after today.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple GFL Environmental analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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