Ameresco's (AMRC) 2025 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance is likely to be lower than expected, driven by potential deterioration in federal contracts under the Trump administration's streamlining efforts, UBS said Tuesday.
UBS said it sees "downside risk" to 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance, as well as "further downward" revisions for 2026 to 2027 consensus estimates. The firm said its 2026-2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates are now 11% below Street estimates.
"In our view, the Trump administration is still in the early stages of efforts to streamline the Federal government and while the ultimate outcome is unclear, we believe a further deterioration in the contracting environment for [Ameresco's] federal projects (20-30% of revenue) is highly probable," UBS said.
While Ameresco's stable earnings stream remains attractive within the brokerage's Clean Energy coverage, heightened federal uncertainty makes the risk/reward balance unfavorable, according to the note.
UBS downgraded its rating on Ameresco to sell from buy and lowered its price target to $8 from $37.
Shares of Ameresco were down 5.4% in recent Tuesday trading.
Price: 10.00, Change: -0.57, Percent Change: -5.35
免责声明：投资有风险，本文并非投资建议，以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请，作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考，不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证，投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。