A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Aspen Technology (AZPN). Shares have lost about 0.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Aspen Technology due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Aspen's Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates

Aspen reported second-quarter fiscal 2025 non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.06, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.85 by 11.4%. The figure jumped 50.4% from the year-ago non-GAAP earnings of $1.37.

The company reported revenues of $303.6 million, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $294.5 by 3.1% and jumped 18% from $257.2 million in the year-ago quarter.

Aspen’s Quarter in Detail

License’s revenues (62% of revenues) were up 23.5% year over year to $188.2 million. Maintenance’s revenues (29.8% of revenues) rose 6.5% to $90.6 million. Revenues from Services and other (8.2% of revenues) surged 25.9% to $24.7 million.

As of Dec. 31, 2024, annual contract value or ACV ( which Aspen Technology defines as the estimate of the annual value of our portfolio of term license and software maintenance and support, or SMS, contracts, the annual value of SMS agreements purchased with perpetual licenses and the annual value of standalone SMS agreements purchased with certain legacy term license agreements, which have become an immaterial part of its business) amounted to $964.9 million, up 9.2% year over year and 2.5% quarter over quarter.

Margins

Gross profit increased 29% to $209.3 million from the year-ago quarter figure of $162.2 million. As a percentage of total revenues, the figure reached 68.9% from 63.1% reported in the prior-year quarter.

Total operating expenses amounted to $200.3 million compared with the year-ago quarter figure of $211.5 million.

Non-GAAP operating income totaled $149 million compared with $88.7 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

As of Dec. 31, 2024, cash and cash equivalents were $181.8 million compared with $237 million as of June 30, 2024. The decrease was due to the effects of share repurchases under the company’s fiscal 2025 buyback program in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, along with a net cash outflow of $36.5 million in the second quarter for acquiring Open Grid Systems Limited.

In October 2024, Aspen announced its agreement to acquire Open Grid Systems, which will enhance its DGM suite with advanced network model management and data infrastructure. As of Dec. 31, 2024, Aspen had no outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility, with $194.5 million available.

The company generated $38.1 million in cash from operations compared with $29.8 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Non-GAAP free cash flow was $36.4 million in the fiscal second quarter compared with free cash flow of $29.2 million in the prior-year quarter.

In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, Aspen repurchased $2.2 million worth of shares.

Fiscal 2025 Outlook

Aspen will not hold an earnings conference call for its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results or provide guidance due to its agreement and plan of merger with Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) and Emersub CXV, Inc., which was signed on Jan. 26, 2025.

Per the deal, EMR will acquire all remaining outstanding shares of Aspen’s common stock that it does not already own. The agreement, structured as an all-cash tender offer, values the minority stake at $7.2 billion, with a per-share price of $265.00.

This transaction places Aspen’s total market capitalization at $17 billion on a fully diluted basis, with an enterprise value of $16.8 billion. As previously stated, the tender offer requires a non-waivable condition that a majority of Aspen's common stock held by minority shareholders must be tendered and remain unwithdrawn. The transaction is anticipated to close in the first half of 2025, subject to customary closing conditions.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Aspen Technology has an average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Aspen Technology has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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