It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Murphy USA (MUSA). Shares have lost about 10.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Murphy USA due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Murphy USA’s Q4 Earnings Beat Estimate

Murphy USA announced fourth-quarter 2024 earnings per share of $6.96, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.43. The outperformance was primarily due to relatively strong merchandise sales.

However, the company’s bottom line fell from the year-ago adjusted profit of $7 due to tepid petroleum product sales.

Murphy USA’s operating revenues of $4.7 billion fell 7.1% year over year and missed the consensus mark by $169 million.

Revenues from petroleum product sales came in at $3.6 billion, well below our estimate of $4.1 billion and down 9.6% from the fourth quarter of 2023. On the other hand, merchandise sales, at $1.1 billion, rose 3.2% year over year.

Key Takeaways

MUSA’s total fuel contribution fell 1% year over year to $389.1 million on lower retail contribution and margin contraction. Total fuel contribution (including retail fuel margin plus product supply and wholesale results) came in at 32.5 cents per gallon, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2023.

Retail fuel contribution decreased 8% year over year to $345.8 million as margins narrowed to 28.9 cents per gallon from 31.1 cents in the corresponding period of 2023. Retail gallons declined 1% from the year-ago period to 1,196.8 million in the quarter under review and missed our estimate of 1,210 million. Volumes on an SSS basis (or fuel gallons per store) deteriorated 1.8% from the fourth quarter of 2023 to 233.6 thousand.

Contribution from Merchandise increased 5.6% to $208.8 million on higher sales and a rise in unit margins from 19.4% a year ago to 19.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024. On an SSS basis, total merchandise contribution increased 2.4% year over year, primarily on the back of 4.7% higher nicotine margins. Meanwhile, merchandise sales increased 1.5% on an SSS basis, again mostly due to an increase in nicotine sales.

The company’s monthly fuel gallons fell 2.4% from the prior-year period, though merchandise sales increased 2% on an average per store monthly basis.

Balance Sheet

As of Dec. 31, Murphy USA — which opened 22 new retail locations in the quarter and closed five outlets to take its store count to 1,757 — had cash and cash equivalents of $47 million and long-term debt (including lease obligations) of $1.8 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization of 68.6%.

During the quarter, MUSA bought back shares worth $126.2 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -14.37% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Murphy USA has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Murphy USA has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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