TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rupiah weakened to close at Rp16,367 per US dollar on Monday, March 10, 2025. The rupiah exchange rate is predicted to weaken tomorrow.

The rupiah value fell by 72 points compared to the previous close. Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi predicts that the rupiah will fluctuate. "For tomorrow's trading, the rupiah is expected to fluctuate but close weaker in the range of Rp16,350 - Rp16,430 per US dollar,'' he said in his routine analysis on Monday, March 10, 2025.

The rupiah's weakening aligns with the strengthening of the US dollar index. According to Ibrahim, global sentiments that influence exchange rate movements include U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy and deflationary pressures in China.

Ibrahim said investors are cautious because last week there were concerns that President Donald Trump would increase trade tensions by imposing a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. Trump is also reported to have increased levies on Chinese products by up to 20 percent.

The Republican Party president then softened his stance by delaying tariffs on most goods from Mexico and Canada for four weeks. However, he remained firm in his stance against China.

In addition, Ibrahim added, deflation pressure in China increased in February as consumer and producer prices fell more than anticipated amid weakening consumer spending. The consumer price index (CPI) contracted by 0.7 percent year-on-year. This marks the first decline in 13 months and exceeds economists' expectations of a 0.4 percent decrease.

At the same time, the producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.2 percent year-on-year. ''Slightly improving from a 2.3 percent decline in January but still below the estimated 2.0 percent decline,'' he said.

Meanwhile, on the domestic front, exchange rate movements are influenced by Bank Indonesia's (BI) report that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves have decreased. At the end of February 2025, foreign exchange reserves reached US$154.5 billion. This is a decrease from the end of January 2025, when they reached US$156.1 billion.

According to Ibrahim, the decrease in foreign exchange reserves is partly influenced by the government's external debt payments. In addition, the persistently high level of uncertainty in the global financial markets has hampered the rupiah exchange rate stabilization policy in response to the BI.

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