The Nasdaq Just Hit Correction Territory: You Won't Believe What Stock Is At a 52-Week Low

Motley Fool
03-11
  • Microsoft shares had been underperforming following a streak of disappointing quarterly guidance.
  • Upended by marketwide weakness at the same time key technical challenges with its cloud business have been worked out, this stock is an attractive buy despite its likely lingering volatility.
  • Artificial intelligence remains a strong growth prospect, even if interest is seemingly modest right now.

It's official. Thanks to Monday's plunge, the Nasdaq Composite has suffered an official correction -- a pullback of at least 10% from its previous peak. As of Monday's close, the index is down a little more than 13% from February's peak and down just a hair more from December's all-time high.

And the sweeping move is dragging a lot of stocks lower with it.

Already underperforming, Microsoft (MSFT -3.34%) stock is one of its victims. It's not only down nearly 19% from last July's peak but now trading at a new 52-week low. It's a shockingly poor performance from one of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks that led the marketwide bullish charge of 2023 and the first half of 2024.

Its pullback is also a magnificent buying opportunity.

But first things first.

So far, the Nasdaq's tumble is more bark than bite

Is the economy entering a recession that will kick off a bear market? Anything is certainly possible. President Trump's tariffs (real as well as threatened) certainly seem to have plenty of people worried. As veteran investors can attest, it wouldn't be the first time the stock market has correctly predicted the economy's future.

There's a flipside to that coin, however. That is, the market's short-term action as an omen of its longer-term trend is wrong at least as often as it's right. One only has to look back at the setback suffered in July of last year to see that this is the case. That was a 15% peak-to-trough correction for the Nasdaq, yet less than a month later, it was on its way to December's record high.

In other words, don't jump to long-term judgments based on the daily news.

However, is this time different? Maybe. July's stumble took shape at a time when it didn't appear that Donald Trump would be in a position to even enact his tariff plan. Now he's in that position and clearly taking action on it.

Still, be careful about concluding that a market-crushing recession is an inevitability. Recessions tend to unexpectedly take shape when few people even think they're possible. Contrarians can't help but notice the current wall of worry, and the stock market may well end up climbing.

Even if neither the Nasdaq Composite nor Microsoft shares are at their ultimate bottom, the software giant's stock is still a compelling long-term prospect at its new 52-week low. Here's why.

Microsoft is more than you realize

You know the company. Microsoft is, of course, the centerpiece of the computer world. Its Windows operating system is installed on 70% of the world's personal computers, according to data compiled by Statcounter. Its productivity software doesn't quite have the reach it once did now that free and low-cost options like Google Docs or Apple Pages are available.

Still, it moves the needle.

Then there's the less-obvious Microsoft, like the Xbox video gaming platform, professional networking website LinkedIn, search engine Bing, and its cloud computing software, Azure. Of last quarter's total top line of nearly $70 billion, more than $25 billion of it was cloud-related. Its high-margin cloud arm is also the company's fastest-growing division.

Given the caliber of all of its products along with the company's sheer size, why was Microsoft already a lackluster performer prior to Monday's stumble, and what made this ticker so very vulnerable to the sweeping sell-off?

Relatively slow growth is one culprit and arguably the chief one. While still able to drive revenue growth in the low double digits, forward-looking revenue guidance given with each of its past three quarterly reports fell short of analysts' expectations. It's somewhat uncharacteristic for the usually impressive technology giant.

In a bigger-picture philosophical sense, however, investors may be wondering if Microsoft's sheer size and saturation of its core markets are finally making it too difficult to grow as it has in the past.

That's a legitimate concern made even more prescient by the prospect of fresh economic headwinds. While consumers and corporations can't stop eating or sacrifice cybersecurity (respectively), they can cut back on general technology spending that's so important to Microsoft's bottom line.

As is so often the case, though, the sellers arguably overshot their target, given the opportunity in front of it.

More than enough growth potential ahead

Take its potential on the cloud computing front as an example.

Although the tepid growth of its cloud business is a key cause of its recent lackluster guidance, on Monday UBS analyst Karl Kierstead reiterated his buy rating and $510 price target for Microsoft stock. He argues that Azure's recent headwinds were more logistical in nature than an indication of lack of demand. With the company addressing these technical challenges in the meantime, the cloud segment's previous growth rates should be restored.

Data source: StockAnalysis.com.

The company is also still plugging away with its efforts to mainstream its artificial intelligence offerings.

Although adoption rates within the business world remain relatively low for now, Microsoft is arguably at least as well equipped as any other outfit to make AI an indefensible tool for consumers. The technology behind its for-pay Copilot program is already largely integrated into Bing's search engine, for instance, but soon may be making its way into some of the company's video games. As technology news website TechCrunch pointed out on Monday, the company is now on the hunt for a senior software engineer with 3D rendering in browser-based games.

This jibes with previous reporting from Microsoft that it was already tinkering with generative AI for this purpose.

In the meantime, the company candidly says it's working on artificial intelligence tech that's capable of rivaling OpenAI's popular ChatGPT platform, which would very likely lead the software giant to sever its strained relationship with the frenemy.

It matters simply because AI -- despite its slow start -- is still an incredible opportunity. Market research outfit Global Insight Services believes the global artificial intelligence market is poised to grow at an annualized pace of 22% per year through 2034.

Don't tarry, but then be patient

These are all long-term projects to be sure, even if the market its likely to reward milestones along the way. Nevertheless, none of these projects' potential -- or much of anything else that's apt to drive fresh growth for Microsoft -- is being reflected in the ticker's current value. The stock is only pricing in its plausible risk, and more than that, it is pricing in fear-inspired headlines that don't necessarily apply to this particular stock. That spells opportunity for you.

Just keep in mind that Microsoft shares may not be at their ultimate low yet, and even if they are, there's still plenty of post-plunge volatility that needs to be worked out. It's just that this dip to a new 52-week low is too attractive for long-term investors to pass up. This top-quality stock is on sale right now.

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