Kingstone Companies KINS is expected to register an improvement in its top line when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 results on March 13, after the closing bell. Per its preliminary results, operating income increased more than three-fold year over year to 49 cents per share.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KINS’ fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $43 million, indicating 18.3% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 46 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KINS’ fourth-quarter earnings has moved up 9.5% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 206.7%.

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What the Zacks Model Unveils for Kingstone

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for KINS this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case as you can see below.

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Earnings ESP: Kingstone has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 46 cents.

Zacks Rank: Kingstone currently carries a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape KINS’ Q4 Results

Its core personal lines direct written premium is likely to have improved owing to an increase in average premium, reflecting solid pricing as well as a higher number in new business policy count. Carriers exiting the market benefited the insurer as their business directly comes to Kingstone.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $36 million.

Per its preliminary results, core direct written premium grew 49%, while direct written premium grew 37%.

Investment results are likely to improve owing to prudent investment of excess cash generated from operations as well as investment in corporate bonds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income is pegged at $1.9 million.

Higher average premiums, coupled with lowering commissions and staffing, are likely to have aided net underwriting expense ratio in the to-be-reported quarter.

Underwriting profitability is likely to have benefited from market dislocation, writing of risks that meet underwriting standards and profit margin objectives, and prudent management of catastrophe exposure.

Price Performance and Valuation

KINS stock outperformed the industry, sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite index in 2024. 

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KINS stock is overvalued compared to its industry. It is currently trading at a price-to-book multiple of 2.84, higher than the industry average of 1.5.  
 

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Shares of other insurers, such as Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. HRTG and ROOT Inc. ROOT, are also trading at multiples higher than the industry average.

Investment Thesis

Kingstone Companies is well poised for growth, given its heightened focus on its core business and scaling back of unprofitable non-core businesses. The insurer only writes businesses that meet its underwriting standards and profit-margin objectives.

This Northeast regional property and casualty insurer has been successful in implementing a price increase ahead of inflation, matching prices to risks. KINS’ partnership with Earnix enhances its pricing capabilities and supports its strategic growth initiatives.

KINS expects direct written premiums in the core business to grow between 15% and 25% in 2025.

Kingstone Companies has a solid reinsurance program in place that shields its balance sheet from erosion. It has strengthened its balance sheet by improving its cash balance while lowering debt. 

Conclusion 

KINS’ focus on growing its core business, improving pricing and combined ratio, expanding margins and delivering strong earnings bodes well for growth. Its VGM Score of A instills confidence in the stock.

The target price of $18 reflects a 31.2% upside potential from the last closing price. 

Despite its expensive valuation, investors can add KINS stock to their portfolio.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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