Market forces rained on the parade of Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.

Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Novavax, is for revenues of US$504m in 2025, which would reflect a disturbing 26% reduction in Novavax's sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 79% to US$0.24. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$567m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.25 in 2025. There looks to have been a major change in sentiment regarding Novavax's prospects, with a substantial drop in revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Novavax

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 26% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 19% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 20% per year. It's pretty clear that Novavax's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Novavax dropped from profits to a loss this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the serious cut to this year's outlook, it's clear that analysts have turned more bearish on Novavax, and we wouldn't blame shareholders for feeling a little more cautious themselves.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Novavax going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.