Goldman Sachs (GS, Financial) downgraded its 2025 U.S. economic growth projection to 1.7% from 2.4%, citing heightened trade policy risks under the Trump administration. The firm's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, noted that expectations for near-term growth have weakened due to higher tariffs and trade uncertainties.
“We now see the average U.S. tariff rate rising by 10 percentage points this year, double our previous forecast,” Hatzius said, marking the first below-consensus GDP projection from Goldman in over two years. The Bloomberg consensus currently stands at ~2%.
Last week, President Donald Trump temporarily halted certain 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, but Goldman expects new tariffs on automobiles and critical goods in the coming months. Hatzius highlighted concerns over Trump's proposed “reciprocal” levies, set to begin on April 2, which could push the U.S. tariff rate even higher.
Despite trade concerns, Hatzius pointed to strong productivity growth, household income gains, and tax cuts as key factors supporting the economy.
U.S. stocks dropped Monday after Trump's Fox News interview failed to ease recession fears.
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