Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ARCT) missed earnings with its latest annual results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Unfortunately, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of US$152m were 13% below expectations, and statutory losses ballooned 27% to US$3.00 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eleven analysts covering Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, is for revenues of US$120.4m in 2025. This implies a painful 21% reduction in Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings' revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 38% to US$4.12 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$205.2m and US$1.85 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$74.12, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings at US$140 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$44.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 21% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 50% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 20% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.