Trump's 200% tariff threat on EU wine, alcohol would remove the products from the US

Yahoo Finance
03-13

You may need to say goodbye to your favorite champagne and cognac. 

Imported wine, champagnes, and other alcoholic products from the European Union are the latest targets of President Trump's tariff threats. 

On Thursday morning, President Trump posted on Truth Social that if the EU didn't remove a 50% tariff on whiskey, the US would place a 200% tariff on wine, champagnes, and other alcoholic products. The whiskey tariff, set for Apr. 1, is part of retaliation for the US putting a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. 

If it goes into effect, the whopping 200% tariff could "essentially eliminate" imports of these types of products in the United States, Needham & Company analyst Gerald Pascarelli told Yahoo Finance.

"A company is not going to ship it on a 200% tariff," Pascarelli said. The duty also "increases the likelihood that you're going to get a global trade war with collateral damage, and that's not going to be good for the sector," he added.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Year to date, shares of American whiskey maker Brown-Forman (BF-B), the world's second-largest wine and spirits seller Pernod Ricard (RI.PA), and scotch and spirits maker Diageo (DEO) have dropped 8%, 11%, and 15%, respectively. 

A spokesperson from Brown Forman told Yahoo Finance, "We are pleased that [European Union] President von der Leyen and Trade Commissioner Šefčovič expressed a desire to negotiate with the U.S. and are hopeful the two sides will reach a constructive resolution before the tariffs take effect on April 1." 

"The tariff conversation is bigger than Brown-Forman and our industry, and it’s evolving rapidly," the spokesperson added.

Brown Forman said it's "working closely" with spiritsEurope and the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States. LVMH, which owns champagne brands Moët & Chandon and Veuve Clicquot, did not immediately respond to request for comment. Pernod Ricard has not yet released a statement. 

On Wednesday, spiritsEurope trade and economic affairs director Pauline Bastidon emphasized that this is not the first time it's seen this sort of retaliation.

"Yet again, spirit drinks have become collateral damage in an unrelated trade dispute," she said. 

In 2018, the EU imposed a 25% tariff on American whiskey as part of retaliatory tariffs during the first Trump administration's steel and aluminum tariffs. Given this gives a sense of déjà vu, Pascarelli said the valuation of Brown-Forman shares may have already priced in the risk of tariffs.  

In January, Tak Niinami, the CEO of Suntory Holdings, which owns bourbon brands Jim Beam, Maker's Mark, and Basil Hayden, told Yahoo Finance at the World Economic Forum, "We are preparing for that tariff from the European continent and vice versa. We've been preparing for it because that dispute has been studied well before."

Bottles of the American whiskey Jack Daniels are offered for sale in a liquor store on Nov. 27, 2023, in Chicago, Illinois. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Scott Olson via Getty Images

In the meantime, champagne and wine lovers may start stocking up. 

"French wines and champagnes are already the most expensive in the market," Pascarelli said. The tariffs "would make it prohibitively expensive for almost every consumer. ... You might see some pre-buying right now ... on fear that [the price of] some of their favorite champagne is going to go up." 

Meanwhile, beer maker Molson Coors' (TAP) shares are up 3% year to date, as its US-based production shields it from the risk of tariffs, per Pascarelli. 

It's a far different story for Constellation Brands (STZ), whose shares are down 17% this year. 

"Tariffs are certainly a headwind to Constellation Brands," he added, as roughly 86% of Constellation Brands' sales are Mexican beer. "Constellation Brands imports every single drop of beer that it sells in the United States from Mexico ... that's going to impact their entire beer business."

Brooke DiPalma is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.

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