• Parcel Volume (Q4 2024): RMB9.67 billion, up 11% year-over-year.
• Annual Parcel Volume (2024): RMB34 billion, growing 12.6% year-over-year.
• Adjusted Net Income (Q4 2024): RMB2.73 billion, up 23.4% year-over-year.
• Adjusted Annual Net Income (2024): RMB10.15 billion, increasing by 12.7% year-over-year.
• Total Revenue (Q4 2024): RMB12.9 billion, up 21.7% year-over-year.
• Total Revenue (2024): RMB44 billion, up 15.3% year-over-year.
• ASP Increase (Q4 2024): 10.3% or RMB0.13.
• ASP Increase (2024): 2.7% or RMB0.04.
• Total Cost of Revenue (Q4 2024): RMB9.2 billion, up 22.3% year-over-year.
• Total Cost of Revenue (2024): RMB30.6 billion, up 14.2% year-over-year.
• Gross Profit (Q4 2024): RMB3.8 billion, up 20.2% year-over-year.
• Gross Profit (2024): RMB13.7 billion, up 17.6% year-over-year.
• Gross Profit Margin (Q4 2024): 29.1%, decreased by 0.4 points.
• Gross Profit Margin (2024): 31%, increased by 0.6 points.
• Operating Cash Flow (Q4 2024): RMB2.8 billion, decreased by 28.5% year-over-year.
• Operating Cash Flow (2024): RMB11.4 billion, decreased by 14.5% year-over-year.
• Adjusted EBITDA (Q4 2024): RMB4.6 billion.
• Adjusted EBITDA (2024): RMB16.4 billion.
• Capital Expenditure (Q4 2024): RMB1.2 billion.
• Capital Expenditure (2024): RMB5.9 billion.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Signs with ZTO.

Release Date: March 19, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (NYSE:ZTO) achieved an 11% year-over-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2024, reaching RMB9.67 billion.
• The company reported a 23.4% year-over-year growth in adjusted net income for Q4 2024, amounting to RMB2.73 billion.
• ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (NYSE:ZTO) maintained high service quality and improved end-to-end timeliness, reducing loss, damage, and complaint rates.
• The company successfully increased its annual parcel volume by 12.6% year-over-year, reaching RMB34 billion.
• ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (NYSE:ZTO) plans to grow its parcel volume by 20% to 24% in 2025, aiming to exceed industry growth expectations.

Negative Points

• The express delivery industry faces downward pressure on logistics pricing due to increased lower-value parcels and intense price competition.
• Operating cash flow decreased by 28.5% for Q4 and 14.5% for the year, primarily due to a one-time refund of franchise deposits and other factors.
• The company anticipates continued intense price competition in the express delivery industry in 2025.
• ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (NYSE:ZTO) faces challenges from consumption downgrades and the need to align closely with market dynamics.
• The company incurred additional costs for sorting activities conducted on behalf of franchise partners, impacting overall cost efficiency.

Q & A Highlights

Q: How does ZTO plan to achieve above-industry volume growth, and what is the impact on pricing and profits? Also, what are the CapEx plans for 2025? A: ZTO aims to grow 20% to 24% in 2025, above the industry average of 16%, by focusing on service quality and market share. The company plans to spend RMB5 billion to RMB5.5 billion on CapEx, mainly for land acquisition and facility upgrades, while maintaining free cash flow. (Meisong Lai, CEO; Huiping Yan, CFO)

Q: How is ZTO leveraging AI and technology for cost efficiency and revenue expansion? A: ZTO is integrating AI in sorting and customer service to improve efficiency and reduce costs. The company is also exploring autonomous vehicles to lower delivery costs, aiming to reduce per-package costs significantly. (Meisong Lai, CEO; Huiping Yan, CFO)

Q: What is the outlook for retail and reverse parcel growth, and how does ZTO plan to manage costs? A: ZTO targets an average daily retail parcel volume of 8.4 million in 2025, up from 5.46 million in 2024. The company plans to reduce sorting and transportation costs by RMB0.03 per package through direct links between outlets and posts. (Meisong Lai, CEO; Huiping Yan, CFO)

Q: What are ZTO's strategies for managing social welfare costs for couriers? A: ZTO ensures 100% social welfare coverage for self-employed and outsourced employees, including commercial insurance. The company aims to provide a better work environment and income for couriers, enhancing their stability and satisfaction. (Meisong Lai, CEO; Huiping Yan, CFO)

Q: How does ZTO view the potential of new technologies like AI and autonomous vehicles in the logistics sector? A: ZTO is optimistic about the potential of AI and autonomous vehicles to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs. The company collaborates with research firms to integrate these technologies into its operations and empower network partners. (Meisong Lai, CEO; Huiping Yan, CFO)

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.