President Donald Trump signaled to stock-market investors last week that they’re on their own. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will likely deliver a similar message when monetary policymakers meet this week.

“The upside risks to inflation lead us to think that, despite the recent weakness in equity markets, there is little chance of a ‘Powell put’” in the week ahead, said Stephen Brown, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

A Powell, or Fed, “put” refers to the notion that a steep fall for the stock market would prompt policymakers to take action aimed at supporting the economy via interest-rate cuts or other measures or signals.

Investors have talked of a figurative Fed put at least since the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price — serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.

Last Sunday, the president demolished any notions that the market was close to triggering a “Trump put” when, in a television interview, he largely shrugged off a question about whether his aggressive tariff policies could lead to a recession — arguing that the long-term rewards from a reworking of the trade system would be worth it. In other words, investors and economists were forced to rethink expectations that Trump would relent on tariffs or other threats to growth out of fear of near-term economic or market consequences.

That left the market to tumble as Trump continued a pattern of imposing sweeping tariffs, relenting on some and promising others, all while trading partners weighed ways to retaliate. The S&P 500 logged a fourth straight weekly fall, joining the Nasdaq Composite in correction territory, or a fall of 10% from a recent high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also neared a correction, while the small-cap Russell 2000 nearly dropped into a bear market — which begins with a 20% pullback — before stocks saw a strong Friday bounce.

Tellingly, market watchers noted that Friday’s bounce came on a day in which Trump was uncharacteristically silent on tariff matters.

The problem for investors is less about the hit to the economy so far, and more about fear that the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs and other policies is paralyzing businesses and, to some extent, consumers — sowing the seeds for an eventual slowdown that could begin to undercut earnings.

The closely followed U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, developed by economists Scott Baker, Nick Bloom and Steven Davis, has risen to a level last seen during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (see chart below).

“I think the nature of the policymaking is much worse than the tariffs themselves, and a lot of companies are starting to say that,” said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, in a phone interview. “A lot of companies are starting to say, ‘If there are going to be tariffs, that’s fine — just tell me what they are and don’t change it.’”

The worry, Gordon said, is that businesses operating blindfolded when it comes to policy will pull back on spending, hiring and other activity, sending the economy into a slowdown or a possible recession.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s closely followed consumer-sentiment index on Friday fell to a 29-month low of 57.6 in March, from 64.7 in the prior month.

The selloff seen in recent weeks, unlike most recent major selloffs, has not been driven by economic fundamentals, such as a deterioration in earnings or economic data, noted Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, in an interview. Instead, policy uncertainty is driving the market jitters, which then results in concerns about the growth outlook.

Goodwin said market participants could find comfort from clarity on policy either from Trump on tariffs and other measures — including potentially market-positive items like extending corporate tax cuts or deregulation — or from the Fed on its rate-cut outlook. Trump has shown little inclination to provide that. So what about the Fed?

Renewed worries over growth have seen investors price back in three quarter-point rate cuts in 2025. But Powell and his fellow policymakers are dealing with the same uncertainty as investors.

With little clear indication about what sort of tariff regime is in the offing, it’s hard for policymakers to discern the impact on inflation or growth. The Fed has a dual mandate to ensure price stability and full employment.

“The problem for the Fed is that the partly policy-induced jump in layoffs is set to be accompanied by a policy-induced rise in inflation,” said Brown at Capital Economics.

That makes it unlikely Powell will deviate much from his recent wait-and-see approach. In remarks earlier this month, the Fed chair said sentiment readings haven’t tended to be a strong guide to actual economic activity, and that policymakers could afford to wait for more clarity on the outlook.

Schwab’s Gordon said the uncertainty underlines the importance of maintaining exposure to quality stocks within any sector or index. Quality, in this case, refers to stocks of companies with a history of profits and consistent earnings growth.

That may sound obvious, he noted — but when investors look to the most consistent outperformance, even when stocks have been falling, it’s largely come from companies that have relatively strong earnings profiles, lots of cash on the balance sheet, low volatility and less foreign-exposure risk.