Memory-maker Micron Technology has steep revenue cycles, and investors are always trying to gauge the timing on the current cycle.
They'll get another opportunity after the market closes Thursday, when Micron reports its fiscal second-quarter earnings.
Wall Street analysts are expecting adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.43, up 240% from last year. Sales are estimated to rise 36% to $7.9 billion.
Last time Micron reported earnings in December, there were small hints that the cycle for memory purchases might be turning down; the stock fell 16% the next day. A quarter earlier, Micron's revenue was up 93%.
Some investors have seen those latest results as a signal to look for an exit.
Micron stock frequently looks undervalued near the top of the cycle. It currently trades at 11.5 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, versus 23.8 for the PHLX Semiconductor index and 20.3 for the S&P 500.
But investors also have to be open to the possibility that this cycle is different because of AI investment. Memory is a key component of AI servers, and analysts expect DRAM sales growth to average 31% over the next six quarters. This is offset by weaker performance in storage, averaging 12% growth in analyst estimates.
If they are right, that could mean the cycle looks different from others, with growth extending out as long as the AI investment boom continues. If they are wrong, Micron stock could be on the verge of another sharp downturn.
免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。