The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1155 ET - Algoma Steel faces challenges from an uncertain trade climate, but the company still can generative positive earnings, BMO's Katja Jancic says. In a report, the analyst says near-term remains challenging and tariffs represent a material headwind. However, both sheet and plate prices have increased materially over the past few weeks, which Jancic says will allow "Algoma to be able to generate positive EBITDA if prices stay at current levels." What's more, Algoma has sufficient liquidity on its balance sheet to weather the current uncertainty. Still, BMO lowers its target price on the stock to C$15 from C$18. Shares are down 5.1% to C$8.92. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0615 ET - Palm oil futures fall, erasing earlier gains. Sentiment was likely pressured by the Cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia's estimates that showed palm oil exports during the March 1-15 period fell about 10.1% on month. The Concerns about overtightening supply due to seasonal reduced harvesting will likely support prices, but uncertainty around trade policies and weaker export demand could cap upside potential, analysts at Kenanga Futures write in a note. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery fell 103 ringgit to 4,371 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

2348 ET - Iron ore declines in early Asian trade as China's economic challenges continue to weigh on the iron ore and steel markets, the ANZ Research team writes in a note. While recent Chinese policy measures may offer short-term support, structural issues are likely to weigh on demand, with the ongoing trade war remaining the biggest headwind for China's export-driven demand, they say. However, tight supply--amid cautious producers--and the increasing use of steel scrap are expected to limit further price declines, they add. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 1.3% lower at 777.5 yuan a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

2252 ET - BlueScope Steel looks close to fully priced following a recent rally on U.S. steel tariffs, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Scott. Shares in the Australian steelmaker--which runs a mill in the U.S., among other operations--have climbed by roughly 23% this year. Citing a call with a U.S. steel trader, Scott says demand doesn't appear to be consistent with current steel prices and that even with tariffs, steel can be sold into the U.S. at levels well below spot values. Expectations are for lower steel prices from here, especially as industry capacity rises following maintenance at some mills, he says. MS retains an equal-weight rating on BlueScope, with a A$24.00 target. The stock is up 2.0% at A$23.02. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2246 ET - A steep selloff in Mineral Resources leads UBS to reverse its rating, upgrading the stock to buy from sell. The Australian miner's shares have fallen by nearly 30% year to date, adding to a more than 50% loss in 2024. UBS analysts say their earlier sell recommendation was based on the company's high operational and fiscal leverage to iron ore and lithium prices at a time when the outlook for both had deteriorated. The company also faced a significant debt burden and governance issues. "While those concerns haven't fully resolved yet, we have reassessed funding and operational scenarios with resultant EPS upgrades of 6%/45% in FY26/27" estimates, they say. "We see enough upside to upgrade to a buy rating, with revised A$28.60/share price target" compared with A$33.00 previously. Mineral Resources is up 9.2% at A$23.97. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2200 ET - Liontown Resources will need to prudently manage costs moving forward, especially if spodumene prices do not improve, Macquarie analysts say in a note. "LTR is navigating challenging waters in a difficult lithium market," the analysts say. They are wary about Liontown's relatively high rate of gearing and say higher-than-expected 1H capital expenditure weighed on free cash flow. Still, they note that the miner posted strong underlying Ebitda for the period as well as a smaller-than-expected loss. Recoveries also continue to improve. Macquarie maintains a neutral rating and a target price of A$0.65 on Liontown. The stock is up 8.5% at A$0.70. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2145 ET - Petronas Chemicals is set for a challenging 1Q as overall plant utilization is expected to drop below 90% due to unplanned outages, Kenanga IB analyst Lim Sin Kiat says in a note. Its Pengerang Petrochemical unit may operate below 50% capacity following feedstock supply disruptions, he reckons. The company's older facilities also face risks of unexpected shutdowns, which could further impact production, he flags. Urea prices may stay elevated but could normalize if China eases export restrictions, he adds. Lim cuts Petronas Chemicals' 2025 core profit forecast by 20% amid the headwinds. He lowers the stock's target price to MYR4.70 from MYR5.07 but maintains an outperform rating on long-term recovery prospects. Shares are 1.6% higher at MYR3.77. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2137 ET - There's a risk demand for metals will "hit an air pocket" following a period of artificial strength, with the escalating tariff war having recently boosted U.S. appetite for copper, steel, and some other commodities, says Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina. "Equity markets presumably agree as mining share prices have not reflected the recent strength in commodity prices," LaFemina says. In some cases, it is appropriate that mining stocks haven't moved in lockstep with metals prices, he says. Yet "we also believe there is good value in the sector now," he says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2103 ET - Liontown doesn't think the market's consensus estimate on its cash position is right, Citi analyst Kate McCutcheon says. Consensus has cash at June-end around A$100 million--Citi's estimate is roughly A$120 million, or A$140 million at spot prices--with Liontown "noting they hold a different view," McCutcheon says. Liontown remains highly leveraged to lithium prices, says McCutcheon. Liontown reckons spot lithium prices below US$900/metric ton are unsustainable, she notes. "Can't argue with optimism?" she says. Citi has a neutral rating and A$0.60 target on Liontown. The stock is up 6.2% at A$0.685. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2047 ET - China's 15% tariff on U.S. coal could reshape the seaborne metallurgical-coal trade and spur more demand from China for Australian coal, Citi analyst Paul McTaggart says in a note. China imported about 6 million metric tons of metallurgical coal from the U.S. in 2024. Although, if China cuts its steel output by about 50 million tons this year, as Citi expects, its total demand for seaborne metallurgical coal could fall by roughly 4 million tons, McTaggart says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 looks set to rise at the open, building on strong momentum by U.S. stocks at the end of last week. ASX futures are up by 1.1% ahead of Monday's session, suggesting that the benchmark index will pare the hefty losses it has compiled across four consecutive weekly declines. The ASX 200 edged 0.5% higher on Friday, but is still almost 9% down since closing at a record on Feb. 14. Ahead of the open, National Australia Bank appointed Andrew Auerbach to lead its key business-banking division. NAB's CFO quit to join rival Westpac. Ramelius Resources said it had agreed to acquire gold explorer Spartan Resources. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 17, 2025 12:20 ET (16:20 GMT)

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