BlockBeats News, March 18th. The price of Bitcoin failed to break through the $85,000 resistance level on March 17th. The high point in the past five days has been hovering in the range of $84,000 to $85,200 but has not been able to stay above $84,600. As the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting (rate decision announcement at 2 a.m. Beijing time on March 20th) approaches, the market has entered a "no man's land" where price fluctuations are full of uncertainty, intensifying the long and short game. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of maintaining the current rate of 4.25% to 4.50% is 99%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 1%. Although the CPI (2.8%) and PCE (2.5%-2.6%) remain above the 2% target, the latest data has not reached the threshold for an immediate rate cut; the unemployment rate (4.1%) and GDP (2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024) still show economic resilience. Polymarket predicts the Fed will end quantitative tightening before April 30 or pave the way for a summer rate cut.

Technically, Bitcoin needs to break through and firmly hold $85,000 and convert it into support. Daily closing above the 200-day EMA is a key signal, with this moving average being breached for the first time since August 2024. If the bears suppress the $85,000 resistance level, a possible downside target is below $78,000, with a key support range from $74,000 (pre-2024 high) to $70,530 (daily order block). Breaking below $69,272 would erase all gains from the "Trump rally." On March 17th, Bitcoin's spot ETF saw a net inflow of $274 million, reaching a new high since February 4th, potentially providing ammunition for the bulls.

Analysts' views are divided. Anonymous analyst SuperBitcoinBro points out that in the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin may test the support zone between $71,300 and $73,800. Analyst Nebraskangooner believes that the FOMC outcome is unpredictable, and Bitcoin needs to reclaim $86,250 to confirm a short-term bullish outlook; otherwise, it may retest $70,000. Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision announcement on March 20th at 2 a.m. Beijing time, with the market focusing on his stance on inflation and the rate-cutting path.