SINGAPORE: Private sector economists have maintained their growth forecast for Singapore's economy this year at 2.6 per cent. 

This is lower than the 4.4 per cent growth recorded last year. The Ministry of Trade and Industry expects Singapore's economic growth to come in at between 1 and 3 per cent this year.

Geopolitical tensions, including higher tariffs, were cited by economists as the top downside risk. They also flagged weaker growth in China and a resurgence in inflation.

The most frequently cited upside risk to Singapore's economic outlook was more robust growth in China, as well as a sustained tech cycle upturn and milder-than-expected trade tensions.

These findings were released on Wednesday (Mar 19) in the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) latest survey of professional forecasters. 

A total of 20 economists and analysts responded to the survey. 

The most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 2.5 per cent to 2.9 per cent this year, similar to the previous survey conducted in December 2024, said the report.

Core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transportation costs, is projected to come in at 1.5 per cent in 2025, falling within MAS’ official forecast range of 1 to 2 per cent.

About 16 per cent of respondents anticipate a reduction in the slope of the Singdollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band in April's monetary policy review. A larger proportion of 29 per cent is expecting such a move in July.

MAS uses the exchange rate as its main policy tool because Singapore is an open economy that depends heavily on trade.

The S$NEER refers to the exchange rate of the Singapore dollar managed against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from Singapore’s major trading partners.

For 2026, GDP growth is forecast to come in at 2.3 per cent, while core inflation is expected to hit 1.7 per cent.