MW FedEx's worse-than-feared outlook triggers price-target cuts - and one downgrade to sell

By Steve Gelsi

Logistics giant signals harder times ahead, causing analysts to lower their stock performance expectations

Wall Street was expecting a weaker outlook from FedEx, but the package-handling giant delivered an even more disappointing view late Thursday, as it signaled headwinds posed by economic uncertainty.

FedEx's stock $(FDX)$ fell 8% in premarket trading Friday, as analysts slashed their price targets for the closely watched company on the heels of its fiscal third-quarter update that offered a cloudier view ahead. Loop Capital went a step further, downgrading the stock to sell from hold.

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Thirteen of the more than 30 analysts that offer coverage on FactSet cut their stock price targets early Friday.

Evercore ISI analyst Jonathan Chappell cut his price target on FedEx's stock (FDX) to $310 from $337 and said the magnitude of the company's reduced profit outlook "was greater than feared."

Chappell cut his fiscal 2026 profit estimate for the company to $21.22 a share from $22.33 a share.

JPMorgan analyst Brian P. Ossenbeck cut his price target for FedEx to $280 from $323. He slashed his fiscal 2026 profit target for FedEx to $21.11 a share from $23.63 a share.

"Management had expected a stronger industrial economy in its original guidance, which has clearly not played out," Ossenbeck said in his research note which he headlined, "March Sadness Continues."

"The FY26 guide was lowered more than expected and management noted that there would likely be no economic improvement in the first half of FY26, essentially the back half of calendar 2025," Ossenbeck said.

TD Cowen's Jason Seidl trimmed his FedEx stock-price target to $310 from $337, while issuing a slightly more upbeat view of FedEx's outlook.

"FDX does not see significant improvement to the macro environment in the first fiscal half of '26, though we note management also did not indicate that the economy would slip into decline," he said.

Since FedEx's size makes it a bellwether for the logistics industry, analysts said other stocks in the sector could come under pressure on Friday including XPO Inc. $(XPO)$, ArcBest Corp. $(ARCB)$ and Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL).

FedEx's stock has fallen 12.5% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 SPX has fallen 3.7%.

-Steve Gelsi

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March 21, 2025 08:31 ET (12:31 GMT)

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