Bernstein analysts project Strategy MSTR, formerly MicroStrategy, could either double its Bitcoin BTC/USD holdings to over 1 million BTC in a bullish market or see its stack face forced liquidations in a prolonged bear phase.

What Happened: According to a research note released on Tuesday, Bernstein updated the firm's outlook for the Bitcoin treasury company after its latest Q4 results and acquisitions, offering a stark contrast between thriving growth and potential stagnation based on market conditions.

In the bull case scenario, Bernstein envisions Strategy scaling its Bitcoin reserves to 1,013,000 BTC by 2033—about 5.8% of the current 19.8 million circulating supply—up from its present 506,137 BTC, or 2.5%.

This leap hinges on a sustained Bitcoin bull cycle peaking at $200,000 by year-end, followed by climbs to $500,000 by 2029 and $1 million by 2033.

"Strategy's Bitcoin holdings could more than double to over 1 million BTC," the analysts wrote, contingent on easier capital markets and lower interest rates.

They estimate the firm's debt would balloon to $100 billion from $11 billion, with equity proceeds hitting $84 billion to fuel this aggressive expansion.

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Why It MattersL Conversely, the bear case paints a bleaker picture, with Strategy's Bitcoin stash plateauing at 2.6% of supply—roughly 514,800 BTC—if an extended bear market follows a 2025 peak at $200,000.

This scenario assumes tougher capital conditions force the company to halt its acquisition spree and possibly sell off holdings to cover debts and dividends.

"An elongated bear market after 2025 could see Strategy's Bitcoin stack stagnate, potentially forcing liquidation," the note states, projecting a debt load of $51 billion under a base case reaching 4% of supply.

The analysts rate Strategy as "outperform" with a $600 price target, a 75% upside, valuing it via a sum-of-parts method: a 2x EV/sales multiple on its software arm and a 55% premium on its Bitcoin treasury, reflecting historical averages since its 2020 crypto pivot.

Strategy's latest move—adding 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million between March 17 and 23—pushed its holdings past 500,000 BTC, reinforcing its Bitcoin-first strategy.

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