Central-bank allocations to gold in Asia are lower than in developed markets, analysts noted.

Goldman Sachs has lifted its gold forecast again, as investors and central banks keep buying the yellow metal.

Analysts led by Lina Thomas moved their gold forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,300 an ounce, from $3,100.

Gold futures (GC00) rose 1.3% to $3,060.70 an ounce, buoyed by uncertainty over new auto tariffs announced by the White House on Wednesday. Gold has jumped 36% over the last 52 weeks.

The analysts pointed to a notable increase in gold exchange-traded fund inflows, saying they expect more, sparked by expectations of two Fed interest-rate cuts this year and another in 2026. "While ETF flows generally track Fed policy rates, history shows they can overshoot during extended periods of macro uncertainty - such as during the Covid-19 pandemic," they said.

The other big factor is central-bank purchases. There's already been a pickup in purchases since November amid heightened U.S. policy uncertainty, and China - and other central banks - may rapidly accumulate gold for another three to six years to get to their desired gold-reserve allocation targets.

One risk for gold prices is that a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement would trigger speculative selling. But the Goldman team doesn't expect that to have a lasting impact on either demand or supply. "On the demand side, the precedent set by the 2022 freezing of Russian central bank reserves has structurally shifted how reserve managers think about asset safety," they said. "On the supply side, sanctioned Russian-produced gold is already reaching global markets through rerouting, meaning that a formal lifting of export sanctions would not materially increase available supply, and we find that it may in fact decrease supply."

They said a peace deal could lead to an attractive entry point.

Another entry point would be a sharp stock-market drop that would lead to margin-driven gold liquidation, they said.

On Tuesday, Bank of America lifted its gold-price forecast to $3,500 from $3,000. As with Goldman, their analysts cited central bank and ETF demand, but also pointed out that China's insurance industry is getting a regulatory push to buy more.