Monday, March 24, 2025

A new week of trading begins with pre-market futures well into the green this morning. We had already bounced off last week’s year-to-date lows with a decent, if bumpy, week of trading overall, but we haven’t seen early-morning gains like this in quite some time. The Dow is +400 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is +70 and the Nasdaq +300 points.

What has been looming large over this difficult period in the markets is the ominous shadow of April 2nd tariffs, which we had been led to think would be comprehensive and substantial, leaving investment analysts scratching their heads about the overall impact. But this morning, reports are that President Trump will be “narrowing” the tariffs — without much more detail than that — and pre-markets are buying the rumor.

We don’t have any major economic reports coming out ahead of the bell, and we got no new shakeups over the weekend from Washington DC or anywhere else. Perhaps, after a brief volatile period in the markets, we’re finally starting to calm down. April 2nd is still on the calendar, and even a full expulsion of new tariff policy wouldn’t necessarily be great news, as the one thing the market abhors in uncertainty.

What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market

After the open, we’ll see flash S&P data on both Services and Manufacturing PMI for March. Expectations for both are exactly 51.5 — up from the prior month on the Services side and down on Manufacturing. Both are expected to remain above 50, which indicates the inflection point between growth and loss.

Also, KB Home KBH will be the next high-profile company to report earnings, expected after today’s closing bell. The homebuilder is expected to post -11% earnings growth year over year — but is looking to post its second earnings beat in a row. Revenues are expected to be up +2.37%. Shares are currently down -9% year to date — in what has been a challenging market for home builders — and the stock carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Check out the updated Zacks Earnings Calendar here.

What to Expect from the Stock Market This Week

KBHome earnings will not be the only housing-related data out this week: New and Pending Home Sales for February and a new Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January will help color in the lines on the industry. We’ll also see fresh Consumer Confidence numbers, Durable Goods and the Trade Balance, not to mention Weekly Jobless Claims.

The biggest report this week will be Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which are expected to remain steady month over month: +0.3% for February and +2.5% from the previous year. The only tiny hint of discrepancy is the +2.7% on PCE core year over year, up from +2.6% reported a month ago. Personal Income is expected to dwindle to mid-single digits, while Personal Spending is expected to bounce back from -0.2% a month ago.

Throughout this all, analysts will keep their eyes trained on Tariff Day, which is a week from Wednesday. Perhaps we’ll see countries currently threatened by a big tax on their imports will tap out and lower rates on U.S. exports, or perhaps we’ll see Trump’s threats dialed back for good, which is what is helping markets move higher this morning.

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