By Joe Hoppe

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of March 24-28 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macro mood is more bearish as the U.S. dollar gained against key commodity currencies.

The U.S. dollar has risen against important commodity currencies like the Brazilian real and the Chinese yuan, damping appetite for risk assets as it becomes more expensive for international purchasers to buy and sell dollar-denominated commodities.

Market uncertainty is already coalescing around the scale and scope of U.S. tariffs set to take effect on April 2, while President Trump also declared a 25% tariff on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela. Trade tensions are already having an effect on speculative positioning for grains, ING analysts said.

Speculators have cut their net long positions in Chicago corn by 39,271 lots over the last reporting week to 107,270 lots. Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans are likely to see U.S. farmers increase corn plantings at the expense of soybeans--so the U.S. will likely produce more corn in the upcoming season, assuming no downward yield surprises, ING said.

South American weather has improved, with extended weather forecasts trending wetter for Brazil and Argentina this week. This will help stabilize corn development, as Brazil's harvest hinges on April and May weather--leaving plenty of development time remaining, Peak Trading said.

Turning to the U.S., subsoil moisture is still low dry across the western Corn Belt and Plains regions. Forecasts show scattered rains incoming over the Corn Belt, but Hard Red Winter wheat development areas will remain dry, analysts said.

Chicago wheat futures are down 1.8% at $5.48 a bushel on Monday, while corn is up 0.1% on $4.65 a bushel. Soybean prices are down 0.25% at $10.07 a bushel.

SOFT COMMODITIES: Agricultural softs have had a mixed performance over the past week, with cocoa and coffee gaining and sugar sliding on-week.

Cocoa prices sit higher on week in thin, volatile trading. Liquidity has improved after the crop shed more than 30% in the year to date, though it remains at historical highs and prices are likely to remain elevated, BMI analysts said in a note. The selloff in recent months reflects the emergence of more favorable weather conditions in key growing regions, BMI analysts said.

Sugar prices have been extremely volatile, with a recent rebound driven by concerns emerging about export levels from top international growers India and Brazil. Brazilian production estimates are being lowered after dry weather while lower cane yields in some key Indian growing areas may challenge the country's ability to keep exports growing, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen said in a note.

On Monday, cocoa was down 0.2% at $8,066 a metric ton, while coffee is up 0.75% at $3.94 a pound. Sugar is up 0.1% at $0.19 pound.

Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 24, 2025 13:44 ET (17:44 GMT)

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