BlockBeats News, March 31st, Bitget Research Institute Chief Analyst Ryan Lee pointed out that as the market enters the second quarter, Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing a dual test of macro and technical factors. Currently, BTC is fluctuating in the $80,000-$86,000 range, while ETH is fluctuating in the $1,600-$2,200 range.
Previously, Trump's proposed 25% tariff policy (scheduled to be implemented on April 2nd for Mexican and Canadian goods) has raised concerns about the re-escalation of a trade war. The correlation between crypto assets and traditional markets has increased, with BTC's correlation to the Nasdaq reaching 0.67. If the U.S. stock market weakens later on, it may drag down the crypto market.
ETF fund flows are also showing differentiation: BTC ETFs continue to attract funds, while ETH ETF funds continue to flow out, indicating institutional preference for Bitcoin. Related data shows that if ETH drops 20% from its current price, it will trigger liquidations of over $336 million, mainly concentrated in DeFi lending platforms. ETH has a high reliance on leverage protocols, which may lead to chain liquidations, with $1,600 being a key support level that, once broken, could accelerate the downside.
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