The Microchip Technology Incorporated (NASDAQ:MCHP) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 30%. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 53% share price decline.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, when almost half of the companies in the United States' Semiconductor industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.9x, you may still consider Microchip Technology as a stock probably not worth researching with its 4.6x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
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Check out our latest analysis for Microchip Technology
Microchip Technology hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the market is expecting the poor revenue to reverse, justifying it's current high P/S.. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Keen to find out how analysts think Microchip Technology's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start .Microchip Technology's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 44% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 26% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 11% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 23% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this in consideration, we believe it doesn't make sense that Microchip Technology's P/S is outpacing its industry peers. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
Despite the recent share price weakness, Microchip Technology's P/S remains higher than most other companies in the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've concluded that Microchip Technology currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its forecast growth is lower than the wider industry. When we see a weak revenue outlook, we suspect the share price faces a much greater risk of declining, bringing back down the P/S figures. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Having said that, be aware Microchip Technology is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are concerning.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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