Updates with S&P 500 targets from RBC and UBS Global Wealth Management; UBS Global Research's FX forecasts; U.S. inflation forecasts Barclays, Citigroup and Nomura; Real GDP growth forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
April 4 (Reuters) - Analysts expect U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs to weaken global economic growth, fuel volatility in global markets and raise inflationary pressures.
RBC Capital Markets and UBS Global Wealth Management have both slashed their year-end targets for the S&P 500 .SPX index following the recent tariffs' announcement. RBC lowered its target to 5,550 from 6,200, while UBS cut to 5,800 from 6,400.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage | S&P 500 target | U.S. 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY |
UBS Global Research | 6400 | 4.25% | 1.12 | 150 | 7.60 |
Goldman Sachs | 5700 | 4.4% | 1.02 (next 12 months) | 152 (next 12 months) | 7.35 (next 12 months) |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 5800 | 4.00% | 1.12 | 145 | 7.50 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 6500-6700 | 4.50%-5.00% | 0.98-1.02 | 158-162 | |
6750 | 4.50% (Q4'25) | 1.09 | 146.3 | 7.28 | |
Deutsche Bank | 7000 | 4.7% (Q4'25) | 1.03 (Q4'25) | 7.50 | |
Nomura | 4.25% | 1.03 | 135 | 6.93 | |
6500 | 4% (Q4'25) | 1.08 (Q4'25) | 141 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) | |
J.P.Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.14 (Q4'25) | 150 | 7.47 |
BofA Global Research | 6666 | 4.50% | 1.15 | 165 | 7.30 |
Wells Fargo | 4.46% | 0.98 (Q4'25) | 154 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) | |
BMO Capital Markets | 6700 | ||||
Jefferies | 6000 | 4.43% | |||
Barclays | 5900 | 4.00% (Q4'25) | 1.06 (Q4'25) | 144 (Q4'25) | 7.50 (Q4'25) |
Piper Sandler | 6600 | ||||
Berenberg | 4.90% | 1.10 | 140 | 7.30 | |
4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.00 (Q4'25) | 156 (Q4'25) | |||
Canaccord Genuity | 6325 | ||||
Citigroup | 6500 | 4.20% (Q4'25) | 1.05 | 139 | |
ING | 1.02 | 160 | 7.35 | ||
HSBC | 6700 | ||||
Evercore ISI | 6800 | ||||
Peel Hunt | 4.15% | 1.06 (Q4'25) | |||
RBC Capital Markets | 5550 | 4% |
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025) | ||
Brokerage | Headline CPI | Core PCE |
Goldman Sachs | 3.4% | 3.5% |
J.P.Morgan | 3.0% | 2.6% |
2.7% (Q4/Q4) | 2.5% (Q4/Q4) | |
Barclays | 3.1% | 2.5% |
Wells Fargo | 3.0% | 2.8% |
2.3% | 2.5% | |
Deutsche Bank | 2.8% (Q4/Q4) | 2.6% (Q4/Q4) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 3.3% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.7% | 2.6% |
BofA Global Research | 2.9% | 2.3% (Q4/Q4) |
Berenberg | 2.9% | 2.6% |
2.3% | ||
Nomura | 3.0% | 4.7% |
ING | 2.4% | |
Wells Fargo | 3.0% | 2.6% |
Jefferies | 2.3% | 2.5% |
UBS Global Research | 2.7% | |
Peel Hunt | 2.6% | |
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 | ||||||
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
UBS Global Research | 3.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.3% |
Goldman Sachs | 2.5% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 6.1% |
Barclays | 2.9% | 1.5% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 7.0% |
2.9% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 6.5% | |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 1% | 6.0% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
Wells Fargo | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.9% |
Societe Generale | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.3% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 6.7% |
Nomura | 2.9% | 2.2 | 4.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 5.8% |
BofA Global Research | 3.1% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 6.6% |
Deutsche Bank | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 1% | 6.5% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 2.6% | 2.5% | ||||
Berenberg | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 6.5% |
2.1% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.2% (March 2026) | ||
Peel Hunt | 1.9% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 6.8% | |
ING | 2.0% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | ||
Jefferies | 2.4% (Q4/Q4) | |||||
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Anil D'Silva, Tasim Zahid, Rashmi Aich, Shounak Dasgupta, Vijay Kishore and Krishna Chandra Eluri)
((Siddarth.s@thomsonreuters.com))
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